Review of Decision-Making Analysis for Transportation Energy Transition

doi:10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.240238

Abstract

Abstract:

To achieve the goal of building a country with strong transportation network, it is necessary to highly develop infrastructure, establish an efficient operational system, promote technological innovation, and achieve sustainable development. Under the dual carbon goals, the sector of transportation must achieve deep carbon reduction through energy transition. This aligns with the sustainable development element in the process of building a country with strong transportation network. However, it is also essential to avoid negative impacts on resource allocation for transportation infrastructure and operational systems due to errors or overly hasty decisions in energy transition. Such impacts could hinder the smooth advancement of the strategy to build a country with strong transportation network. Because energy transition involves many key decision factors such as vehicle power technology, infrastructure building, user conduct, and policy-making, its complexity and importance can’t be ignored. This paper aims to delve into the significance, methods, tools, and experiences of decision-making analysis for transportation energy transition at the intersection of building a country with strong transportation network and achieving the dual carbon goals. By combining literature reviews and case studies, it seeks to provide theoretical and practical reference for national policies and corporate decision-making, while also fostering greater attention and research on related decision-making analyses. Firstly, this paper describes the meaning and motivation of transportation energy decision-making analysis and abstractly summarizes it relying on an optimization model framework. Secondly, based on the vehicle power technology, infrastructure, user conduct, and policy-making, a detailed demonstration is carried out by using the optimization model framework mentioned above and citing analytical cases in existing cases which include mileage optimization of an electric vehicle, charging network planning, user conduct of making choice, emission reduction and fairness of policy, and so on. Thirdly, the impact that improper assumptions in the decision-making and analysis of transportation energy transition on industry and society is pointed out according to the published cases or policy implementations. Finally, this paper summarizes the significance and feasibility of decision-making analysis in the transformation of transportation energy and proposes several research topics to encourage further exploration in this field. By integrating the strategy of building a country with strong transportation network with the dual carbon goals, this paper aims to provide comprehensive theoretical support and practical gui-dance for decision-making in transportation energy transformation, thereby promoting sustainable development in China’s transportation sector.

Key words: building national strength in transportation, carbon neutrality, transportation energy transition, vehicle power technology, decision-making analysis

CLC Number:

TK01

CHEN Cuifeng, LIN Zhenhong, HUANG Chikun, ZHAO Jinyao, OU Shiqi. Review of Decision-Making Analysis for Transportation Energy Transition[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 53(1): 32-48.

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Table 1

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国家	车辆分类		平均燃油经济性/（英里·加仑^-1）	车辆年均行驶里程/英里	期望使用寿命/年
中国	轿车	小型	35.91	7 510	13.76
		中型	30.68	9 191
		大型	29.16	10 332
	SUV/小型货车/小型SUV	小型	30.69	9 273	15.32
		中型	26.15	9 982
		大型	22.36	10 838
美国	轿车	小型	26.40	9 462	16.19
		中型	26.01	10 434
		大型	19.96	9 553
	SUV		20.38	10 605	18.56
	小型货车		19.55	11 478
	轻型货车		16.18	10 449

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