Abstract:

Proposed in this paper is a reliability analysis method based on the stochastic ultimate bearing capacity,which combines the stochastic response surface method(SRSM)with the elastic modulus reduction method(EM-RM). In the investigation,first,based on the limit analysis theory and the generalized yield criterion,an EMRM is developed to determine the ultimate bearing capacity. Then,an improved SRSM for stochastic response analysis is proposed based on the stepwise regression analysis and the linear independent criterion. Finally,a novel reliability analysis method is presented based on the expansion of the stochastic ultimate bearing capacity determ ined by the SRSM and the EMRM. Numerical example shows that the proposed method is of high accuracy and efficiency for structural reliability analysis because it helps to directly obtain the expansion of the stochastic uhimate bearing ca-pacity and the structural perform ance function.

Key words: stochastic ultimate bearing capacity, elastic modulus reduction method, reliability, stochastic response suIfa e methOd