Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 137-143,150.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2016.05.021

• Computer Science & Technology • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction of Network Security Situation on the Basis of Time Series Analysis

WEN Zhi-cheng1 CHEN Zhi-gang1 TANG Jun2   

  1. 1.School of Information Science and Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,Hunan,China; 2.CRRC Zhuzhou Institute Co.,Ltd.,Zhuzhou 412001,Hunan,China
  • Received:2015-09-18 Revised:2015-10-14 Online:2016-05-25 Published:2016-04-12
  • Contact: 陈志刚(1964-)，男，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事网络计算与分布式处理研究． E-mail:czg@csu.edu.cn
  • About author:文志诚(1972-)，男，教授，博士后，现就职于湖南工业大学计算机与通信学院，主要从事网络安全研究． E-mail:zcwen@ mail． shu． edu． cn
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61379057，61309027，61073186)and the Natu- ral Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2016JJ5034)

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Abstract: As the existing network security situation prediction is restricted to its single information source and poor real-time property,a new prediction method fully considering the variation of network security situation is proposed on the basis of time series analysis.In this method,a series of hidden Markov models are constructed to predict the security situation for hosts according to the front and back dependence,and then to predict the trend of network se- curity at the next moment by fully using multi-source heterogeneous information.Moreover,the network security si- tuation at the next moment is quantitatively calculated from all hosts in the network.Thus,the change law and de- velopment direction of network security situation can be indirectly predicted.Experimental results in real network environments show that the proposed prediction method of network security situation is feasible and effective.

Key words: network security, security situation prediction, hidden Markov model, time series analysis, parame-ter learning