Reliability Prediction of Travel Time Based on Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2016.04.017

Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (4): 115-122.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2016.04.017

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering • Previous Articles Next Articles

Reliability Prediction of Travel Time Based on Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Model

YANG Qing-fang^1,2,3WEI Xue-wu² LIN Ci-yun^1,2,3 LI Zhi-lin² LIU Xiang-yu²

1.State Key Laboratory of Automotive Simulation and Control,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,Jilin,China; 2.College of Transportation,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,Jilin,China; 3.Jilin Province Key Laboratory of Road Traffic,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,Jilin,China

Received:2015-08-23 Revised:2015-12-15 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-04-12
Contact: 林赐云(1980-) ，男，讲师，主要从事智能交通运输系统研究 E-mail:linciyun@jlu.edu.cn
About author:杨庆芳(1966-) ，女，教授，主要从事智能交通运输系统研究． E-mail: yangqf@ jlu． edu． cn
Supported by:
Supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program the Ministry of Science and Technology of China( 2014BAG03B03)

Abstract

Abstract: In order to fully and accurately analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of link travel time,this paper incorporates the time sequence and the spatial relationship between two links into two adjacent links for travel time reliability prediction.From the temporal dimension,the widely-used Kalman filtering is adopted to predict the travel time; while from the spatial dimension,the correlation model describing the travel time between downstream and upstream links is built based on the discrete Markov chain model.Then,a spatio-temporal Bayesian model ( STBM) is constructed to fuse the temporal and spatial travel time distributions for predicting the travel time reliability of road links.Case study results show that,as compared with the prior distributions,the proposed model decreases the reliability prediction error by 45. 7% and 29. 2% respectively for the two measured adjacent links,which verifies the effectiveness of the ST-BM model.

Key words: expressway, travel time reliability, spatio-temporal Bayesian model, spatio-temporal correlation, Markov chain

CLC Number:

U491

YANG Qing-fang WEI Xue-wu LIN Ci-yun LI Zhi-lin LIU Xiang-yu. Reliability Prediction of Travel Time Based on Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Model[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition), 2016, 44(4): 115-122.

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Reliability Prediction of Travel Time Based on Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Model

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