Computer Science & Technology

Prediction of Network Security Situation on the Basis of Time Series Analysis

Expand
  • 1.School of Information Science and Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,Hunan,China; 2.CRRC Zhuzhou Institute Co.,Ltd.,Zhuzhou 412001,Hunan,China
文志诚(1972-),男,教授,博士后,现就职于湖南工业大学计算机与通信学院,主要从事网络安全研究. E-mail:zcwen@ mail. shu. edu. cn

Received date: 2015-09-18

  Revised date: 2015-10-14

  Online published: 2016-04-12

Supported by

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61379057,61309027,61073186)and the Natu- ral Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2016JJ5034)

Abstract

As the existing network security situation prediction is restricted to its single information source and poor real-time property,a new prediction method fully considering the variation of network security situation is proposed on the basis of time series analysis.In this method,a series of hidden Markov models are constructed to predict the security situation for hosts according to the front and back dependence,and then to predict the trend of network se- curity at the next moment by fully using multi-source heterogeneous information.Moreover,the network security si- tuation at the next moment is quantitatively calculated from all hosts in the network.Thus,the change law and de- velopment direction of network security situation can be indirectly predicted.Experimental results in real network environments show that the proposed prediction method of network security situation is feasible and effective.

Cite this article

WEN Zhi-cheng CHEN Zhi-gang TANG Jun . Prediction of Network Security Situation on the Basis of Time Series Analysis[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science), 2016 , 44(5) : 137 -143,150 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2016.05.021

Outlines

/