Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2018, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6): 1-7.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2018.06.001

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering •     Next Articles

Quantitative Estimation on the Safety Effect of Traffic Composition on Freeways
 

 WEN Huiying SUN Jiaren ZENG Qiang ZHANG Xuan    

  1.  School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,Guangdong,China
  • Received:2017-09-05 Revised:2018-02-25 Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-05-07
  • Contact: 曾强( 1988-) ,男,博士,助理研究员,主要从事交通安全和交通组织研究 E-mail:zengqiang@scut.edu.cn
  • About author:温惠英( 1965-) , 女,教授,博士生导师,主要从事交通运输规划与管理、交通安全研究.
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China( 51578247) , China Postdoctoral Science Foundation( 2017M610529) and the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province( 2017A030310161) 

Abstract: To analyze the impact of traffic composition on freeway safety deeply, the roadway, traffic and crash data on Kaiyang Freeway in Guangdong Province in 2014 were collected. The vehicles were classified into five categories according to the toll standard. A Bayesian hierarchical model and a conditional autoregressive ( CAR) model were developed to correlate roadwayrelated and trafficrelated attributes with crash frequency on freeway segments. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the parameters and to compare the models. The results of model comparison show that the CAR model,which accounts for the spatial correlation across adjacent freeway segments,outperforms the Bayesian hierarchical model. The parameter estimates in the CAR model suggest that there are 15. 5% and 24. 4% decreases in expected crash frequency on the freeway per 1% increase of Categories 1 ( e. g. ,automobile) and 3 ( e. g. ,medium coach and medium truck) vehicles, respectively. Moreover,crash frequency is found higher on longer freeway segments with more averaged daily traffic,bigger curvature and steeper grade.

Key words:  freeway, traffic safety, traffic composition, spatial correlation, conditional autoregressive model

CLC Number: