Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2020, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (11): 19-29.doi: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.200072

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Crash Risk Evaluation Model Based on Brake Heating for Trucks under Continuous Downhill Road Conditions

ZHANG Chi1,2 HU Tao1,3 HOU Yudi1,4 ZHAI Yiyang1 XIANG Delong1,3   

  1. 1．College of Highway，Chang'an University，Xi'an 710064，Shaanxi，China; 2． CCCC First Highway Consultants Co． ，Ltd．Xi'an 710075，Shaanxi，China; 3． Engineering Ｒesearch Center of Highway Infrastructure Digitalization，Ministry of Education，Xi'an 710064，Shaan'xi，China; 4． Guangzhou Municipal Engineering Design and Ｒesearch Institute Co． ，Ltd，Guangzhou510060，Guangdong，China
  • Received:2020-02-20 Revised:2020-05-02 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2020-11-05
  • Contact: 张驰(1981-)，男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事交通安全与交通 BIM 研究。 E-mail:zhangchi@chd.edu.cn
  • About author:张驰(1981-)，男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事交通安全与交通 BIM 研究。
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Key R＆D Program of China (2017YFC0803906)，and the Postdoctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China (2016M590915)

PDF

249

Abstract: An innovative model based on brake heating for crash risk evaluation was proposed to quantitatively evaluate the driving risk of trucks on continuous downhill． First，considering the risk of chain accidents caused by the continuous reduction of truck braking performance，the brake heating of the brake hub was used to represent the key risk cause of the crash accidents，and the truck accident rate was used to represent the risk accident.Then，taking the continuous downhill in Ya'an-Xichang section of Beijing-Kunming highway as the research section，the risk cause and risk accident were quantified by numerical simulation of the brake heating，and the inner connection between braking temperature, temperature gradient and accident rate was revealed by correlation analysis.Finally，the crash risk measurement equation was constructed by using multiple nonlinear regression method to fit the surface function，and the crash risk evaluation model was established in combination with the risk classification criteria． The results show that the Cumulative Logistic function can better explain the changing law of the truck crash risk on downhill． The average error between the final model evaluation result and the actual accident is 0. 288，and the accuracy rate is 80. 87%． The evaluation model shows high accuracy and can provide reference for scientific decision-making in traffic safety management and control of continuous downhill sections．

Key words: crash risk, continuous downhill, brake heating, temperature gradient, multiple nonlinear regression

CLC Number: