Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2012, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 41-45,56.

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Forecast of Injury Number Due to Traffic Accident Based on Ordered Probit Model

Zong Fang  Xu Hong-guo  Zhang Hui-yong   

  1. College of Traffic,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,Jilin,China
  • Received:2011-09-20 Revised:2011-11-24 Online:2012-07-25 Published:2012-06-01
  • Contact: 许洪国(1955-) ，男，博士，教授，主要从事车辆安全与交通事故工程研究． E-mail: xhg335@163．com E-mail:zongfang@ jlu.edu.cn
  • About author:宗芳(1979-) ，女，博士，副教授，主要从事运输系统规划与管理研究．
  • Supported by:

    国家"863”计划项目( 2009AA11Z201) ; 国家自然科学基金资助项目( 50908099， 50878095)

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Abstract:

In this paper,first,a forecast model of injury number due to traffic accident is established based on the Ordered Probit method and is calibrated via the maximum likelihood estimation. Then,the factors affecting the number of injuries are analyzed and the marginal contribution of each factor to the number of injuries is calculated. Moreover,a forecast of injury number is carried out with the proposed model. The results indicate that the major
factors impacting the number of injuries are whether the surface of the road is dry,a bus or truck involved or not,and whether it happened at an intersection. The proposed model can be used to forecast the number of injuries in an accident and analyze the influence orientation and severity of each factor on the independent variable. The study provides decision-making supports for traffic management departments in terms of accident severity determination and fast accident response.

Key words: traffic accident, Ordered Probit model, number of injuries, severity forecast, quick response