Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2012, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 139-144.

• Architecture & Civil Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Calculation of Construction Period Value-at-Risk of Foundation Pit Engineering for Subway Station

Liu Xin1,2  Hong Bao-ning1,3  Han Shang-yu3,4  Chen Xing-zhuan1,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China; 2. Tunnel and Urban Subway Institute,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China; 3. Geotechnical Research Institute,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China; 4. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang 330063,Jiangxi,China
  • Received:2012-01-12 Revised:2012-04-03 Online:2012-06-25 Published:2012-05-03
  • Contact: 刘鑫(1984-) ，男，博士，讲师，主要从事隧道及地下工程风险研究． E-mail:liuxin100@hhu.edu.cn
  • About author:刘鑫(1984-) ，男，博士，讲师，主要从事隧道及地下工程风险研究．
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目( 51079052) ; 广东省交通厅科技项目( 200903005) ; 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目( CX10B_208Z，CXLX11_0437) ; 河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目( 2012B03014)

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Abstract:

This paper deals with the calculation methods and the corresponding steps of the value-at-risk due to the construction period change,based on the total probability and the Monte Carlo thoughts. In the investigation,first,the risk probability is calculated for the project without anomalous change during the construction,with anomalous change but without remedial measures,and with anomalous change as well as remedial measures. Based on the probability calculation in the three above-mentioned cases,a calculation formula of full-probability method of abnormal project time is established. Then,by using the Monte Carlo thoughts,the Monte Carlo method calculation steps of the value-at-risk are presented based on Matlab, and the construction period change is described with the Beta distribution function. Finally,with an excavation engineering of a subway station as an example,the value-atrisk during the excavation period and the supporting period is calculated. The results indicate that the full-probability method and the Monte Carlo method are both effective.

Key words: foundation pit engineering, construction period, risk estimation, risk probability, construction period value-at-risk

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