Abstract:

In order to effectively predict the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass, a gray-catastrophic prediction model is proposed based on the gray and the catastrophic theories. In this model, the monitored acoustic emission information is changed into prediction data based on the gray theory, and the prediction data are transformed into an essential format of cusp catastrophic model via the least-square principle curve fitting and the differential coefficient homeomorphous change. The proposed model is then used to predict the failure time of k79 ＋ 380 - k79 ＋ 500 right slope of Gui-Bi highway, and the predicted results basically accord with the actual ones. It is thus concluded that the proposed model is effective in predicting the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass.

Key words: acoustic emission, gray-catastrophic model, block rockmass slope, collapse, time prediction