Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (12): 55-62.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2015.12.008

• Power & Electrical Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Power Grid Loss and Its Conducting Model Based on Life Cycle Cost Theory

Jiang Li-min1 Han Yong-xia2 Huang Wei1 Yan Hua-guang1 Dai Dong2 Li Li-cheng2   

  1. 1． China Electric Power Ｒesearch Institute，Beijing 100192，China; 2． School of Electric Power，South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510640，Guangdong，China.
  • Received:2015-03-26 Revised:2015-08-10 Online:2015-12-25 Published:2015-11-01
  • Contact: 韩永霞(1982-)，女，博士，副教授，主要从事电力系统过电压与绝缘配合等研究． E-mail:epyxhan@scut.edu.cn
  • About author:蒋利民(1978-)，男，高工，主要从事配电网仿真分析、供用电领域节能技术等研究.E-mail:jianglm@epri.sgcc.com.cn
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51377061) and the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2014A030313249)

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Abstract: The analysis of life cycle costs (LCC) plays a key role in the concept of life cycle management． In or-der to develop a more precise LCC model for the power grid and its main equipment，the inflation rate prediction method and the loss conducting model are introduced into the LCC model． Based on the power grid characteristics that the increase of total loss will cause the cost of generation side to increase and the loss of subordinate power grid will lead to the raise of the comprehensive investment of above grid，a power grid loss conducting model is pro-posed，and a method to calculate the loss conducting cost-to-LCC ratio is put forward． In addition，the inflation rate is predicted by using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model． Then，the loss distribution in each part of a typical power grid is analyzed based on the above LCC model，and the necessity and importance of the energy conservation in the power distribution grid are pointed out． Finally，a case study on the influence of the loss conducting cost on the LCC is performed，which proves that the proposed loss conducting model is of practical value．

Key words: life cycle cost, loss conducting model, power grid loss distribution, autoregressive integrated moving average model

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