Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition) ›› 2014, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 103-108,138.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2014.02.016

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Practical Method of MNP Model Parameter Estimation and Its Application to Forecast of Trip Mode Choice

Yu Li- jun Wang Lei- yun   

  1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,Guangdong,China
  • Received:2013-08-03 Revised:2013-09-24 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-01-02
  • Contact: 俞礼军(1972-)，男，博士，副教授，主要从事交通运输规划与设计方法研究． E-mail:yulijun@scut.edu.cn
  • About author:俞礼军(1972-)，男，博士，副教授，主要从事交通运输规划与设计方法研究．
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(51108192， 51378222)

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Abstract:

As estimating MNP model parameters using the SML- GHK method is sensitive to the initial values,apractical method for initial value determination and parameter estimation is proposed.It uses the Bayesian approachto define the initial values of MNP model parameters,and adopts the simulated maximum likelihood based on GHKframework to estimate the MNP model parameters.Then,a case study is performed to verify the effectiveness of theproposed method.The results show that (1) the proposed method is applicable and effective,especially for small-scale samples; (2) using parameters defined by the proposed approach,better trip mode share forecast results canbe achieved ; and (3) it is a useful tool for transport planners to exam the probability variations of trip mode choiceresulted by transport policy changes.

Key words: MNP model, parameter estimation, simulated maximum likelihood, Bayesian approach, GHK algo-rithm

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