关键词: 多尺度地理加权回归, 土地利用, 空间差异性, 阈值效应, 梯度提升决策树, 轨道交通客流

Abstract:

The impact of land use on passenger flow within the influence scope of urban rail transit stations has different spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. To explore the complex nonlinear relationship between land use and passenger flow at different stations, this paper proposed a differentiation identification method based on the spatial distribution of land use variables, and through time-phased multiscale geographic weighted regression, station clustering indicators that can characterize the spatiotemporal changing characteristics of land use impact on passenger flow were obtained. K-means++ algorithm was used to divide the stations into four categories, and the complex nonlinear relationship between land use and railway passenger flow under different categories was explored based on the improved gradient boosting decision tree model. Research shows that the accuracy of nonlinear model can be effectively improved by capturing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the relationship between the land use and passenger flow and classifying the stations properly. According to the output results, the key factors are different for each category. For the first category, the bus station number and sidewalk density have top relative importance value of 61.35% and 30.08% respectively; the key factors are the same for the fourth, but with an importance value decreasing from 61.35% to 30.31% for the bus station number. For the second category, the building densityhas the greatest impact with a relative ratio of 66.57%, and on the contrary, which only accounts for 5.59% for the third one. Meanwhile, there are significant and varying threshold effects on the relationship between land use and rail transit passenger flow. The result shows that different types of stations should put different emphasis on land use development, and land use design indicators should be controlled within a reasonable range. This research will provide theoretical support and quantitative guidance for the formulation of differentiated land use development strategies around stations.

Key words: multiscale geographic weighted regression, land use, spatial differentiation, threshold effect, gradient boosting decision tree, rail transit passenger flow