关键词: 铁路疏解衔接系统, 用户细分, 潜类混合 Logit 模型, 非集计模型

Abstract: Customer segmentation of railway egress shuttle system is one of the fundamental work for the optimiza- tion of intermodal connectivity for railway hubs． A latent class mixed Logit model for customer segmentation，which can realize the function of customer classification and behavior analysis at one time，was constructed by collabora- ting the likelihood function of latent class model with that of disaggregate mixed Logit model． With the settings of random preference parameters in the latent classes，it can accommodate the resembling but not homogeneous prefe- rences that customers have on attributes in the same sub-market． An example was given with the stated preference data collected towards the arrival passengers at Chengdu East Railway Station for their egress mode choices． NLogit software was used in the process of model testing and parameter estimation． Direct and cross elastics for time and cost of different egress modes were calculated and corresponding management policies were proposed to improve egress shuttle services． The results show that the market is segmented into 4 sub-markets that are “transit pre- ferred”，“private car preferred”，“taxi preferred”and“car-hailing preferred”，and each sub-market exhibits di- fferent market occupation rates，parameter significance levels，as well as attribute preferences． It proves the model ＇s feature of integrating both exogenous and endogenous variables in market segmentation as well as its powerful econometrical explanation ability in market analysis．

Key words: railway egress shuttle system, customer segmentation, latent class mixed Logit model, disaggregate model