关键词: 风险事件, 决策模型, 决策过程, 风险效益, 灵敏度分析

Abstract:

In order to remedy the shortcoming of the traditional decision-making method for prevention measures of risk event unconventionality, a decision-making model based on risk benefit theory is established with the help of Dempster-shafer theory. In this model, similar prophase projects information and risk events are statistically analyzed, and the remedy probability and cost for different decisions are determined. Then, according to decisionmaker＇s risk preference, the comprehensive probability of latter unconventionality of risk events is determined. Moreover, the risk benefits of different measures are compared, and an optimal decision with maximum benefit is obtained, the reliability of which is evaluated by means of sensitivity analysis. The process and feasibility of the proposed model is finally demonstrated by the example of reducing latter settlement in Foshan First-Ring Road.

Key words: risk event, decision-making model, decision-making process, risk benefit, sensitivity analysis