Traffic Safety

Analysis of Factors Affecting Truck Accidents on Mountainous Freeways

  • WEN Huiying ,
  • MA Zhaoliang ,
  • ZHAO Sheng ,
  • WU Liming ,
  • HUANG Kunhuo
Expand
  • 1.School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,Guangdong,China
    2.Guangdong E-Serve United Co. ,Ltd,Guangzhou 510075,Guangdong,China
温惠英(1965—),女,教授,博士生导师,主要从事交通规划、交通安全研究。E-mail: hywen@scut.edu.cn

Received date: 2024-05-28

  Online published: 2025-01-13

Supported by

the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52372329)

Abstract

Mountainous freeways pose a higher risk for truck accidents due to their complex terrain, variable weather conditions, and constrained road infrastructure. To investigate the factors influencing the severity of truck accidents on mountainous highways and provide a scientific basis for proactive accident prevention and precise traffic safety management, this study employs machine learning methods to construct and analyze classification models for predicting accident severity. A total of 34 features, including collision type, vehicle type, pavement structure, horizontal alignment, vertical alignment, roadside protection measures, road surface conditions, season, and accident time, were selected as input variables. Accident severity, categorized into minor injury and severe injury, was used as the binary output variable. Three machine learning models were developed: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). To evaluate the classification performance of these models, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were used as assessment metrics. Furthermore, to gain deeper insights into the decision-making mechanisms of each model and identify key influencing factors, the study applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to interpret the model predictions and quantify the contribution of each input variable to accident severity. The results indicate that the RF model outperforms the DT and SVM models, demonstrating superior performance in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. SHAP analysis further identifies critical factors influencing the severity of truck accidents on mountainous highways, including rollover, absence of gradient, cement pavement, curves, frontal collisions, accident time (19:00—06:59), and lack of roadside protective measures.

Cite this article

WEN Huiying , MA Zhaoliang , ZHAO Sheng , WU Liming , HUANG Kunhuo . Analysis of Factors Affecting Truck Accidents on Mountainous Freeways[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science), 2025 , 53(7) : 93 -103 . DOI: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.240263

References

[1] HUANG H, PENG Y, WANG J,et al .Interactive risk analysis on crash injury severity at a mountainous freeway with tunnel groups in China[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention2018111:56-62.
[2] 马新露,樊博,陈诗敖,等 .基于实时交通流的事故风险评估与分析模型[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)202149(8):19-25.
  MA Xinlu, FAN Bo, CHEN Shiao,et al .Evaluation and analysis model for freeways crash risk base on real-time traffic flow[J].Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition)202149(8):19-25.
[3] 庄焱,董春娇,米雪玉,等 .基于改进网络核密度和负二项回归的事故黑点鉴别[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)202452(1):119-126.
  ZHUANG Yan, DONG Chunjiao, MI Xueyu,et al .Identification of accident black spots based on improved network kernel density and negative binomial regression[J].Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition)202452(1):119-126.
[4] 胡郁葱,韦湖,曾强 .基于空间广义有序Probit模型的高速公路事故严重程度分析[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)202351(1):114-122.
  HU Yucong, WEI Hu, ZENG Qiang .Analysis of freeway crash severity based on spatial generalized ordered probit model[J].Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition)202351(1):114-122.
[5] 温惠英,张璇,曾强 .高速公路单车事故等级的影响因素分析[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)202149(8):12-18.
  WEN Huiying, ZHANG Xuan, ZENG Qiang .Influence factor analysis of freeway single-vehicle crash severity[J].Journal of South China University of Technology (Natural Science Edition)202149(8):12-18.
[6] 周琬琦,张衡 .基于随机参数有序Logit的山区高速公路追尾事故严重程度分析[J].河南科技202342(17):24-30.
  ZHOU Wanqi, ZHANG Heng .Using random logistic ordered Logit to analyze severity of rear-end collision accidents on mountain highways[J].Henan Science and Technology202342(17):24-30
[7] 柳昕汝 .山区高速公路伤亡事故故障树及贝叶斯网络模型[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2019.
[8] 焦华昌 .基于机器学习的山区高速公路事故风险预测模型研究及应用[D].石家庄:石家庄铁道大学,2021.
[9] 唐睿熙 .基于交通事故分析的山区高速公路交通安全预测研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2019.
[10] 张璇,温惠英 .基于贝叶斯空间有序Logit模型的高速公路货车事故严重程度分析[J].甘肃科学学报202234(6):78-84.
  ZHANG Xuan, WEN Huiying .Analysis on free truck crash severity based on bayesian spatial ordered Logit model[J].Journal of Gansu Science202234(6):78-84.
[11] 李振明,牛毅,樊运晓,等 .不同区域高速公路货车事故特征研究[J].中国安全科学学报202030(6):121-127.
  LI Zhenming, NIU Yi, FAN Yunxiao,et al .Research on characteristics of expressway truck accidents in different regions[J].China Safety Science Journal202030(6):121-127.
[12] 王磊,吕璞,林永杰 .高速公路交通事故影响因素分析及伤害估计[J].中国安全科学学报201626(3):86-90.
  WANG Lei, Pu LYU, LIN Yongjie .Traffic accidents on freewags:influencing factors analysis and injury severity evaluation[J].China Safety Science Journal201626(3):86-90.
[13] FOUNTAS G, ANASTASOPOULOS P C, ABDEL-ATY M .Analysis of accident injury-severities using a correlated random parameters ordered probit approach with time variant covariates[J].Analytic Methods in Accident Research201818:57-68.
[14] 吴雪菲 .基于随机森林算法的降雨天气下高速公路二次事故致因研究[D].南京:东南大学,2020.
[15] 侯兆凯 .高速公路交通事故严重程度GA-BP预测方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2020.
[16] 李康 .基于贝叶斯网络的高速公路交通事故研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2017.
[17] 国务院 .道路交通事故处理办法:国务院令第89号[EB/OL].(1991-09-01)[2025-03-16]..
[18] 李英帅,张旭,王卫杰,等 .基于随机森林的电动自行车骑行者事故伤害程度影响因素分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息202121(1):196-200.
  LI Yingshuai, ZHANG Xu, WANG Weijie,et al .Factors affecting electric bicycle rider injury in accident based on random forest model[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology202121(1):196-200.
[19] 柳本民,闫寒 .基于SVM事故分类的连环追尾事故影响因素分析[J].交通信息与安全202038(1):43-51.
  LIU Benmin, YAN Han .An analysis of influencing factors of multi-vehicle rear-end accidents based on accident classification of SVM[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety202038(1):43-51
[20] 魏凌峰,姜文龙 .基于支持向量机的交通事故影响因素分析[J].山东交通科技2022(1):84-87.
  WEI Lingfeng, JIANG Wenlong .Analysis of infuencing factors of traffic accident severity based on support vector machine[J].Shandong Transportation Science and Technology2022(1):84-87
[21] 刘明远 .基于机器学习的高速公路交通事故影响因素分析与预测研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2022.
Outlines

/