Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science) >

2023 , Vol. 51 >Issue 7: 109 - 119

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.220609

Traffic & Transportation Engineering

Activity Resilience of Urban Residents: Empirical Evidence Based on the Recovery of Rail Transit Ridership During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • 1.Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
    2.National Maglev Transportation Engineering R&D Center, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
陈小鸿（1961-），女，博士，教授，主要从事区域与城市综合交通规划、交通政策、交通可持续发展等研究。E-mail:tongjicxh@163.com

Received date: 2022-09-19

  Online published: 2023-01-19

Supported by

the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71734004)

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Abstract

Urban residents’ activity resilience is a vital component of society resilience. Based on the concept of society resilience, this paper qualitatively verified the existence of urban residents’ activity resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, and quantitatively analyzed its evolution mechanism. Firstly, by using the daily rail transit ridership data of 28 cities in China in the two years before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, residents’ activity resilience was defined and measured, and a logistic function was introduced to model the ridership recovery process. Secondly, from the perspective of policy adjustment and behavior adaptation, this paper constructed and analyzed the action adjustment and learning adaptation process of plural subjects such as the government and the public. The results show that the larger the scale of rail transit network, the higher the residents’ activity resilience. As compared with the cities with a population of less than 5 million, the time for megacities with a population of more than 10 million to recover to 50%, 80%, 90% and 100% of the weekday ridership is 7 days, 15 days, 47 days and 95 days earlier, respectively. The later the recovery period, the greater the difference, and the weekend also shows a similar pattern. Rigid weekday activities have better resilience than flexible weekend activities, and the logistic function fitting parameters α of ridership recovery on weekdays and weekends are 0.019 and 0.016, respectively; H are 77.07 and 106.82 d, respectively. During the second outbreak after the first round of pandemic, the decline of rail transit ridership decreases, the average daily growth of ridership recovery rate in the second outbreak is 1~3 times that of the first round of pandemic, and residents’ activity resilience improves significantly. It concludes that the credibility created by accurate and effective interventions enhances the public compliance with policies, and that public awareness and learning about risks can significantly improve activity resilience. The research results provide a new perspective on how to estimate the travel demand and activity recovery and evaluate the impact of social interventions.

Key words： urban transport; activity resilience; COVID-19 pandemic; rail transit ridership; recovery ability

Cite this article

CHEN Xiaohong, TIAN Tiantian, ZHANG Hua . Activity Resilience of Urban Residents: Empirical Evidence Based on the Recovery of Rail Transit Ridership During the COVID-19 Pandemic[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science), 2023 , 51(7) : 109 -119 . DOI: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.220609

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