Traffic & Transportation Engineering

Prediction of Expressway Travel Time Based on Adaptive Interpolation Kalman Filtering

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  • School of Mechanical,Electronic and Control Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China
赵建东(1975-),男,博士,副教授,主要从事交通安全与控制研究.

Received date: 2013-07-01

  Revised date: 2013-10-18

  Online published: 2014-01-02

Supported by

国家 “十一五” 科技支撑计划项目(2011BAG07B05-2);北京市首都公路发展集团有限公司科研课题(H120508)

Abstract

Poor adaptability of Kalman filtering algorithm may result in inaccurate prediction of expressway traveltime when the traffic flow between two expressway toll stations is non- stationary.In order to solve this problem,aprediction algorithm based on the equidistant interpolation and the Sage- Husa adaptive Kalman filtering is proposed.In the investigation,first,data from manual toll collection and electronic toll collection are merged together to cal-culate the average travel time.Then,the time series between real- time and historical travel time is reconstructedvia the equidistant interpolation,and a prediction model based on the Sage- Husa adaptive Kalman filtering is con-structed with the help of the least square method.Moreover,a prediction system of expressway travel time is deve-loped and is finally applied to the real- time prediction of the travel time between two toll stations.Case study resultsof an expressway section show that,in the three states,namely,the normal state,the accident state,and the holi-day state,the proposed algorithm is able to restrict the average relative error of all periods or of a random accidentwithin 7.5% or 10%,respectively.

Cite this article

Zhao Jian- dong Wang Hao Liu Wen- hui . Prediction of Expressway Travel Time Based on Adaptive Interpolation Kalman Filtering[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science), 2014 , 42(2) : 109 -115 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-565X.2014.02.017

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