Abstract:  Bayesian factor|model selection|path sampling|Box-Cox model

Key words: In order to solve the problem of model selection by means of Bayesian method and in view of the selection , of the traditional linear Box-Cox model and the nonlinear Box-Cox model?the method of path sampling was adopted , to calculate the Bayesian factors?A continuous path parameter with a certain assumed probability distribution was then , introduced to connect different models to be selected．Thus?the main calculation of the Bayesian factors was focused , on the sampling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） and the calculation in the analytical process by means of , Bayesian method was simplified．It is concluded that the method of path sampling can be applied to model selection in , practice．