被疏散者的出行行为分析是准确估计疏散路网清空时间的重要前提,也是应急疏散中的一个重要问题.文中以被疏散者的家庭集聚行为为研究对象,结合台风＂莫拉克＂灾害的应急背景,采用线性规划建模的思想,构造了家庭疏散集聚地点选择模型.通过引入家庭成员重要性因子,来表征疏散时兼顾家庭弱势成员的人性化考虑,并综合家庭成员集合时期望总体出行时间最少以及家庭成员彼此之间等待时间最短等优化目标,探讨应急条件下家庭疏散的出行特征.进而结合Matlab及仿真软件Starlogo,对近饱和、饱和以及过饱和3种情况下家庭集聚行为对疏散路网总体清空时间的影响展开分析.仿真结果表明家庭集聚行为将会导致疏散路网清空时长估计结果呈现出15%左右的增幅.

The analysis of travel behaviors of evacuees is an important premise of the exact estimation of network clearance time,and it is also an important issue in emergency evacuation.This paper aims at the household gathe-ring behaviors of evacuees and establishes a location-choosing model for household gathering based on the linear programming modeling,with ＂Morakot＂ typhoon disaster as the emergency background.By introducing the priority factors of household members,the model gives humanistic considerations to the vulnerable household during the evacuation,and describes the travel characteristics of emergency evacuation by minimizing the total travel time of household members for gathering and the waiting time among gathering groups.Moreover,with the help of Matlab and Starlogo,the effects of household gathering behaviors on the total network clearance time in under-saturated,saturated and over-saturated scenarios are respectively simulated and compared.The results present that household gathering behaviors will lead to an increase of about 15% to the total network clearance time estimation.