能源、动力与电气工程

面向韧性提升的极端冰灾下输电网协同规划与运营策略研究

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  • 1.华南理工大学 电力学院,广东 广州 510640;

    2. 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司,广东 广州 510663

网络出版日期: 2026-01-22

A Collaborative Planning and Operation Approach for Transmission Grids under Extreme Ice Hazards for Resilience Enhancement

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  • 1. School of Electric Power Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong,China;

    2. Energy Development Research Institute Co., Ltd.,CSG Guangzhou,Guangzhou 510663, Guangdong,China

Online published: 2026-01-22

摘要

针对极端冰灾时空不确定性与输电网规划运营成本的矛盾,本文提出了一种面向韧性提升的输电网协同规划与运营策略研究。首先,在灾害建模层面,构建了融合广义极值分布(GEVD)与时空随机场的多阶段时空耦合覆冰模型,以捕捉灾害演化的非平稳特性;同时,采用连续时间马尔科夫链(CTMC)刻画多子导线的故障机理,描述覆冰增量下输电容量的变化过程。其次,在决策优化层面,构建了考虑条件风险价值(CVaR)的两阶段优化框架:第一阶段以最小化投资成本为目标,协同优化线路差异化抗冰等级与主动融冰装置布局;第二阶段以最小化运维成本与尾部风险为目标,对机组出力、分级负荷削减及融冰、除冰维修资源进行全过程协同调度。最后,基于改进IEEE RTS-96系统的算例分析表明:所提针对性投资策略相较于全线最高抗冰等级方案可节省约33%的投资成本;在运营阶段,通过多资源的时序接力配合,使单次极端灾害下的总运营成本降低74.9%。研究结果验证了该方法能有效实现输电网经济性与韧性的提升。

本文引用格式

唐文虎, 余诣, 吴良峥, 等 . 面向韧性提升的极端冰灾下输电网协同规划与运营策略研究[J]. 华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.250404

Abstract

Addressing the conflict between the spatiotemporal uncertainty of extreme ice disasters and the economic constraints of transmission network hardening, this paper proposes a collaborative planning and operation method for enhancing grid resilience. First, regarding disaster modeling, a multi-stage dynamic icing model fusing Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) and spatiotemporal random fields is constructed to capture the non-stationary evolution of disasters. Simultaneously, a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is employed to characterize the cascading failure mechanism of multi-split conductors, describing the dynamic decay of transmission capacity under ice accumulation. Second, regarding decision optimization, a two-stage stochastic optimization framework incorporating Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is proposed. The first stage (planning) co-optimizes differentiated line hardening levels and active de-icing device layout to minimize investment costs. The second stage (operation) minimizes operational costs and tail risks by coordinating generation redispatch, hierarchical load shedding, and active de-icing/repair resources. Case studies on a modified IEEE RTS-96 system demonstrate that the proposed targeted investment strategy saves approximately 33% of capital costs compared to a uniform maximum-hardening scheme. Furthermore, the multi-resource collaborative operation strategy reduces total operational costs by 74.9% under extreme scenarios. The research findings validate that this approach can effectively enhance the economic efficiency and resilience of transmission grids.

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