关键词: MNP 模型, 参数估计, 模拟极大似然, Bayes 方法, GHK 算法

Abstract:

As estimating MNP model parameters using the SML- GHK method is sensitive to the initial values,apractical method for initial value determination and parameter estimation is proposed.It uses the Bayesian approachto define the initial values of MNP model parameters,and adopts the simulated maximum likelihood based on GHKframework to estimate the MNP model parameters.Then,a case study is performed to verify the effectiveness of theproposed method.The results show that (1) the proposed method is applicable and effective,especially for small-scale samples; (2) using parameters defined by the proposed approach,better trip mode share forecast results canbe achieved ; and (3) it is a useful tool for transport planners to exam the probability variations of trip mode choiceresulted by transport policy changes.

Key words: MNP model, parameter estimation, simulated maximum likelihood, Bayesian approach, GHK algo-rithm