交通能源转型决策分析综述

doi:10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.240238

华南理工大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (1): 32-48.doi: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.240238

• 能源、动力与电气工程 • 上一篇下一篇

交通能源转型决策分析综述

陈翠峰¹, 林镇宏¹^,², 黄炽坤¹, 赵津瑶¹, 欧士琪¹^,²

^1.华南理工大学，广东广州 510006
^2.人工智能与数字经济广东省实验室（广州），广东广州 510335

收稿日期:2024-05-20 出版日期:2025-01-25 发布日期:2025-01-02
通信作者: 林镇宏（1977—），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事能源转型、能源决策与分析、交通工程等研究。 E-mail:zhenhong@scut.edu.cn
作者简介:陈翠峰（1977—），女，助理研究员，主要从事党建与思想政治、交通强国思想与建设实践研究。E-mail： cfchen@scut.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52072130);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2024A1515010740)

Review of Decision-Making Analysis for Transportation Energy Transition

CHEN Cuifeng¹, LIN Zhenhong¹^,², HUANG Chikun¹, ZHAO Jinyao¹, OU Shiqi¹^,²

^1.South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510006，Guangdong，China
^2.Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy Laboratory （Guangzhou），Guangzhou 510335，Guangdong，China

Received:2024-05-20 Online:2025-01-25 Published:2025-01-02
Contact: 林镇宏（1977—），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事能源转型、能源决策与分析、交通工程等研究。 E-mail:zhenhong@scut.edu.cn
About author:陈翠峰（1977—），女，助理研究员，主要从事党建与思想政治、交通强国思想与建设实践研究。E-mail： cfchen@scut.edu.cn
Supported by:
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52072130);Guangdong Basic and

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

实现交通强国目标要求高度发展基础设施、构建高效运营体系、推动技术创新和实现可持续发展。在双碳目标这一背景下，交通部门需通过能源转型实现深度减碳，这既符合交通强国构建过程中的可持续发展要素，也需要避免因能源转型决策错误或过于急切而对交通基础设施、运营体系的资源配置产生负面影响，从而影响交通强国战略的顺利推进。交通能源转型涉及多个关键决策变量，如汽车动力技术、基础设施建设、用户行为和政策制定等，其复杂性和重要性不容忽视。该文旨在从交通强国和双碳目标相融合的角度，结合综述和案例研究，深入探讨交通能源转型决策分析的意义、方法、工具和经验，为国家政策的制定和企业决策提供理论与实践参考，引发对相关决策分析的重视和研究。首先，对交通能源转型决策分析的内涵和动机进行了阐述。然后，从汽车动力技术、基础设施、用户行为和政策制定4个角度出发，运用优化模型思维方法，并引用已有文献中的分析案例进行详细示范，涵盖诸如电动车辆行驶里程优化、充电网络规划、用户选择行为决策、政策减排效益及公平性等内容。此外，借助已发表的案例或政策实施情况，着重指出了交通能源转型决策分析中不当假设可能对行业和社会产生的影响。最后，总结了交通能源转型决策分析的重要性和可操作性，提出了若干研究课题建议，以促进该领域的深入研究。该文研究内容可为交通能源转型决策提供全面的理论支持和实践参考，有利于推动我国交通领域的可持续发展。

关键词: 交通强国, 碳中和, 交通能源转型, 汽车动力技术, 决策分析

Abstract:

To achieve the goal of building a country with strong transportation network, it is necessary to highly develop infrastructure, establish an efficient operational system, promote technological innovation, and achieve sustainable development. Under the dual carbon goals, the sector of transportation must achieve deep carbon reduction through energy transition. This aligns with the sustainable development element in the process of building a country with strong transportation network. However, it is also essential to avoid negative impacts on resource allocation for transportation infrastructure and operational systems due to errors or overly hasty decisions in energy transition. Such impacts could hinder the smooth advancement of the strategy to build a country with strong transportation network. Because energy transition involves many key decision factors such as vehicle power technology, infrastructure building, user conduct, and policy-making, its complexity and importance can’t be ignored. This paper aims to delve into the significance, methods, tools, and experiences of decision-making analysis for transportation energy transition at the intersection of building a country with strong transportation network and achieving the dual carbon goals. By combining literature reviews and case studies, it seeks to provide theoretical and practical reference for national policies and corporate decision-making, while also fostering greater attention and research on related decision-making analyses. Firstly, this paper describes the meaning and motivation of transportation energy decision-making analysis and abstractly summarizes it relying on an optimization model framework. Secondly, based on the vehicle power technology, infrastructure, user conduct, and policy-making, a detailed demonstration is carried out by using the optimization model framework mentioned above and citing analytical cases in existing cases which include mileage optimization of an electric vehicle, charging network planning, user conduct of making choice, emission reduction and fairness of policy, and so on. Thirdly, the impact that improper assumptions in the decision-making and analysis of transportation energy transition on industry and society is pointed out according to the published cases or policy implementations. Finally, this paper summarizes the significance and feasibility of decision-making analysis in the transformation of transportation energy and proposes several research topics to encourage further exploration in this field. By integrating the strategy of building a country with strong transportation network with the dual carbon goals, this paper aims to provide comprehensive theoretical support and practical gui-dance for decision-making in transportation energy transformation, thereby promoting sustainable development in China’s transportation sector.

Key words: building national strength in transportation, carbon neutrality, transportation energy transition, vehicle power technology, decision-making analysis

中图分类号:

TK01

陈翠峰, 林镇宏, 黄炽坤, 赵津瑶, 欧士琪. 交通能源转型决策分析综述[J]. 华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2025, 53(1): 32-48.

CHEN Cuifeng, LIN Zhenhong, HUANG Chikun, ZHAO Jinyao, OU Shiqi. Review of Decision-Making Analysis for Transportation Energy Transition[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 53(1): 32-48.

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国家	车辆分类		平均燃油经济性/（英里·加仑^-1）	车辆年均行驶里程/英里	期望使用寿命/年
中国	轿车	小型	35.91	7 510	13.76
		中型	30.68	9 191
		大型	29.16	10 332
	SUV/小型货车/小型SUV	小型	30.69	9 273	15.32
		中型	26.15	9 982
		大型	22.36	10 838
美国	轿车	小型	26.40	9 462	16.19
		中型	26.01	10 434
		大型	19.96	9 553
	SUV		20.38	10 605	18.56
	小型货车		19.55	11 478
	轻型货车		16.18	10 449

交通能源转型决策分析综述

Review of Decision-Making Analysis for Transportation Energy Transition

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