为解决复杂系统可靠性威布尔分布的参数估计中存在的问题，对威布尔分布的x方向和y 方向参数估计方法进行了介绍．分析了两种方法的统计学特性，并通过蒙特卡洛模拟对两种参数估计方法进行对比．在合理选择参数估计方法的基础上，建立了某复杂产品的威布尔分布模型．结果表明: 对于复杂系统可靠性模型，当样本容量n ＞14 时可以直接采用x 方向参数估计方法; 对于n≤14 的小样本系统，需根据样本的均方差来选择参数估计方法．

In order to solve the problems existing in the parameter estimation of the Weibull distribution for the reliability determination of complex systems,both the x-direction and y-direction parameter estimation methods are introduced,and the statistical characteristics of the two methods are analyzed. Then,a comparison between the two methods is carried out via the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally,by reasonably selecting a parameter estimation
method,a Weibull distribution model of complex products is established. The results show that,for the reliability model of complex systems,when the sample size n is more than 14,the x-direction parameter estimation method is applicable. However,when n is not more than 14,a suitable parameter estimation method should be selected according to the mean square deviation of the sample.