传统的基于期望效用理论的路径选择模型存在许多不足,而累计前景理论则可以比较真实的描述不确定性情况下的决策过程,符合出行者有限理性的特点.文中以累积前景理论为基础,在路径出行效用连续随机分布的条件下对出行者的感知效用进行建模,并结合模型的变量对模型的特性进行了分析,最后通过实例对比分析了分别应用期望效用理论和累积前景理论时,出行者路径选择行为的差异。结果表明,累积前景理论能够克服期望效用理论的许多不足,更好地描述出行者路径选择的决策过程.文中还通过对参考点和路径出行效用分布的分析,为智能交通控制系统和仿真建模提供了理论支持.

The traditional route choice models based on expected utility （ EU） are of many disadvantages,while the cumulative prospect theory （ CPT） that accords with traveler＇s bounded rationality can provide an accurate description of traveller＇s decision-making process in uncertain conditions. This paper establishes a CPT-based model for traveler＇s perceive ultility under the condition of random continuous path ultility distribution,and analyzes the properties of the model combined with related variables. Then,a case study is conducted to analyze the difference of traveller＇s route choice behaviors respectively based on the EU and the CPT,finding that the CPT is superior to the EU in terms of describing traveller＇s decision-making process. Finally,the reference point and the route utility distribution are analyzed,which provides a theoritical foundation for the investigation into intelligent traffic control system and its simulation modelling.