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气象因素视角下全球城市低空飞行潜力评估

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  • 1. 浙江大学中原研究院,河南 郑州  450000

    2. 浙江大学 建筑工程学院,浙江 杭州 310058

    3. 浙大启真未来城市科技 ( 杭州 ) 有限公司,浙江 杭州 311100

    4. 浙江工业大学 设计与建筑学院,浙江 杭州 310000

网络出版日期: 2026-04-14

Assessment of Global Urban Air Mobility Flight Potential from the Perspective of Meteorological Factors

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  • 1. ZhongYuan Institute, Zhejiang University, Zhenzhou 450000, China

    2. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

    2. Zhejiang University Qizhen Future City Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd, Hangzhou 311100, China

    4. School of Design and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310000, China

Online published: 2026-04-14

摘要

随着低空经济的发展,城市低空飞行活动对气象条件的依赖不断增强,系统识别不同气象背景下的飞行气象潜力对运行组织和空域规划具有重要意义。本文构建由可用率、失效频次、平均失效时长和最长连续可用时长组成的低空飞行气象潜力评价指标体系,基于ERA5再分析资料获取全球328座典型城市近地面气象数据,从气候带、区域(大洲)和季节三个维度系统分析城市低空飞行气象潜力的时空差异特征。研究采用分组统计、Kruskal–Wallis显著性检验、多分类回归和效应量分解等方法,定量识别多类因素对城市低空飞行可用率的相对贡献,并构建气候带与季节组合下的可用率预测框架。结果表明,全球城市低空飞行气象潜力总体较高,但在纬度、区域和季节尺度上存在显著差异:热带及部分亚热带城市可用率最高、失效事件最少且持续时间最短,温带城市受锋面系统和中高纬天气扰动影响,可用性相对偏低,季节上普遍呈现“第一季度相对最不利、第二和第三季度最有利”的规律。多分类回归与效应量分析显示,气候带(偏η² = 0.166)和季节性(偏η² = 0.151)是影响可用率的主导因素,而区域(大洲)的独立作用相对较弱(偏η² = 0.035)。气候带与季节组合的预测热力图进一步揭示了大尺度气候背景与季节节律共同塑造城市低空飞行气象潜力的交互结构。研究提出的全球化评估框架和多因素分析方法,可为城市空域规划、运行策略制定及 UAM(Urban Air Mobility)适航区划提供定量支撑。

本文引用格式

李翔宇, 郭文彤, 徐文珠, 等 . 气象因素视角下全球城市低空飞行潜力评估[J]. 华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.250484

Abstract

With the development of the low-altitude economy, urban low-altitude flight activities have become increasingly dependent on meteorological conditions. Systematically identifying the flight meteorological potential under different weather conditions is of great significance for operational organization and airspace planning. This paper constructs an evaluation index system for low-altitude flight meteorological potential, consisting of availability, failure frequency, average failure duration, and maximum continuous availability. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data, near-surface meteorological data for 328 typical cities worldwide were obtained, and the spatiotemporal differences in urban low-altitude flight meteorological potential were systematically analyzed from the perspectives of climate zones, regions (continents), and seasons. The study employs methods such as grouped statistics, Kruskal–Wallis significance tests, multi-class regression, and effect size decomposition to quantitatively identify the relative contributions of multiple factors to urban low-altitude flight availability and to construct a forecasting framework for availability under climate zone and seasonal combinations. The results indicate that, overall, the meteorological potential for low-altitude urban flights is high globally, but there are significant differences across latitudes, regions, and seasons: tropical and some subtropical cities exhibit the highest availability, the fewest failure events, and the shortest durations, whereas temperate cities, affected by frontal systems and mid-to-high latitude weather disturbances, have relatively lower availability. Seasonally, the trend generally follows the pattern of 'least favorable in winter, most favorable in summer.' Multi-class regression and effect size analysis show that climate zones (partial η2 = 0.166) and seasonality (partial η2 = 0.151) are the dominant factors affecting availability, whereas the independent effect of region (continent) is relatively weak (partial η2= 0.035). The predictive heatmaps for combinations of climate zones and seasons further reveal the interactive structure through which large-scale climatic backgrounds and seasonal rhythms jointly shape the meteorological potential for urban low-altitude flight. The proposed global assessment framework and multi-factor analysis methods provide quantitative support for urban airspace planning, operational strategy formulation, and UAM (Urban Air Mobility) airworthiness zoning.

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