针对道路空洞在车辆扰动、降雨等因素作用下的发展情况确定困难的问题，本文提出了一种量化分析道路空洞演化规律的方法。通过探地雷达获取地下空洞的电磁波，并基于MATLAB软件利用波形图计算各测线空洞的截面面积，采用这种测量方法分析了含水率和冲击荷载对室内试验模型中道路空洞的发展行为的影响。通过敏感度分析法定量研究荷载大小、荷载次数及含水率对道路空洞各截面发展的影响程度。试验结果表明：空洞截面面积计算的变异系数仅1.73%，且所有测量值的相对误差均小于5%，该方法具有显著可靠性。空洞中间截面的变化率均值较小且变化范围也明显更窄，这说明该区域受周边土体约束最强，且在高能量冲击及多次累计冲击下均表现为面积压缩；而边缘截面变化率显著高于中间截面，尤其在大荷载与高含水率作用下左右边界变化率均超过100%，因此边缘截面可作为道路空洞工程监测的核心指标。影响道路空洞发展的因素按严重程度排序为含水率变化、荷载大小及荷载次数。本研究为复杂环境下道路空洞发展的分析与道路养护策略制定提供了理论依据。

To address the challenge of accurately characterizing the development of road cavities under vehicle disturbances, rainfall, and other factors, this study proposes a quantitative method to analyze the evolution patterns of road cavities. Electromagnetic signals of subsurface cavities were acquired using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and the cross-sectional areas of cavities along each survey line were calculated from waveform data using MATLAB software. This measurement approach was employed to analyze the effects of moisture content and impact loading on the development behavior of road cavities in laboratory test models. The influence of load magnitude, number of load applications, and moisture content on the development of various cross-sections of road cavities was quantitatively investigated using sensitivity analysis. The experimental results indicate that the coefficient of variation for the calculated cavity cross-sectional area is only 1.73%, and the relative errors of all measurements are below 5%, demonstrating the algorithm’s significant reliability. The mean rate of change in the cross-sectional area at the cavity center is relatively small, with a noticeably narrower variation range, indicating that this region is most strongly constrained by the surrounding soil. Under high-energy impacts and multiple cumulative shocks, it consistently exhibits area contraction. In contrast, the rate of change at the edge sections is significantly higher than that at the center, especially under conditions of heavy load and high moisture content, where the change rates at both left and right boundaries exceed 100%. Therefore, the edge sections can serve as key indicators for monitoring road cavity engineering. The factors influencing the development of road cavities are ranked by severity as follows: moisture content variation, load magnitude, and number of load applications. This study provides a theoretical basis for analyzing the development of road cavities under complex environmental conditions and for formulating road maintenance strategies.