在分析化工园区事故影响严重程度的基础上，提出了一种基于路网风险的化工园区疏散路径模型。首先，基于化工园区事故的事故统计和事故概率，建立针对性的事故模型并定量计算事故后果及区域个人风险; 然后，构建基于路网风险的化工园区疏散路径模型，根据影响疏散人员路网选择的 3 个因素，即距疏散出口的距离、疏散位置的可疏散空间、疏散位置的风险来计算路网的风险; 最后，利用 Dijkstra 算法计算事故场景下该疏散场景的避开事故影响且疏散时间较短的路径。仿真结果表明，所提出的路径选择模型可以规划出有效避免事故影响范围的、较为安全的疏散路径，有助于化工园区规划应急疏散路径，给疏散人员转移及园区疏散设计提供参考借鉴。

Based on the analysis of the severity of chemical accident，an evacuation path model based on the road networks risk was proposed． Firstly，based on accident statistics and accident probability of chemical industrial park accidents，a targeted accident model was established and accident consequences and regional individual risks were quantitatively calculated． Secondly，the evacuation path model of chemical industrial park was constructed based on the road network risk which was calculated according to three factors that influence the choice of evacua-tion personnel road network，that is，the distance from the evacuation exit，the risk of the evacuation position，and the evacuation space of the evacuation position． Finally，the Dijkstra algorithm was used to calculate the path of the evacuation scene in the accident scene to avoid the accident and shorter evacuation time． The simulation results show that the proposed path selection model can plan a safe evacuation path that effectively avoids the scope of acci-dents and provides a reference for evacuation personnel transfer and park evacuation design．