基于易损性分析及危险性分析，提出了桥梁在车辆火灾作用下风险概率的数值 计算方法． 依据车辆火灾事故的统计数据，利用最大熵原理估计出了最大热释放速率的概 率密度函数． 提出了基于 RSM-MCS 的桥梁构件易损性分析方法，并通过对结构体系、构 件相关性及体系损伤准则的进一步研究给出了结构体系易损性的分析方法． 以一座简支 梁桥为例，利用该方法对不同损伤等级下的风险概率进行了计算分析． 结果表明:利用文 中方法可以对桥梁的抗火性能进行有效评价．

Based on the vulnerability analysis and the hazard analysis，a numerical calculation method for risk probability of bridge exposed to fires caused by vehicles was developed． According to the statistical data of vehicle fire accidents，the probability density function of maxim heat release rate was estimated using the principle of maxi- mum entropy． A vulnerability analysis method of bridge member based on RSM-MCS was proposed，and a vulner- ability analysis method of structural system was given by the research about structural system，correlation and dam- age criterion of system． The risk probability of a simply supported beam bridge under fires caused by vehicles was provided to illustrate the method． The results show that the suggested method can effectively evaluate the fire resist- ance of a bridge．