光伏系统接入配电网会增加负荷的波动性和不确定性，对配电网输配电设备的容量规划造成一定影响． 文中在分析纵向时刻光伏出力和负荷概率性的基础上，考虑一定风险系数来降低供电负荷，并利用储能作为削峰填谷来应对供电负荷降低之后的概率风险，基于此原理对储能容量进行优化配置，并实现风险性与经济性的平衡，求取经济效益最大化时对应的风险系数． 算例表明该方法可为配电网设备容量的规划带来一定经济效益．

The PV access to distribution networks can cause the volatility and uncertainty of load to increase,which has a certain effect on the capacity planning of power transmission and distribution equipment.In this paper,on the basis of the probability analysis of both PV power and load in longitudinal moment,supply load is reduced by introducing a risk parameter.Then,energy storage is taken as a measure to shift electricity from peak periods to offpeak periods,so as to handle the probabilistic risk after reducing the supply load.On the basis of this principle,the energy storage capacity is optimized,and the balance between risk and economics as well as the risk factor corresponding to a maximum economic benefit is achieved.Case analyses show that the proposed method in this paper can bring certain economic benefits for the device capacity planning of distribution networks.