孤岛微电网中，光伏、风电等随机性电源占的比重较大，同时负荷也具有随机性，而确定性潮流计算结果仅能反映单个时间断面下的运行情况为能更真实地反映孤岛微电网的潮流分布， 建立了孤岛微电网中光伏阵列和风电机组的概率模型，并采用基于半不变量和 Gram- Charlier 级数展开的随机潮流计算方法，对实际海岛孤岛微电网的潮流进行分析， 验证了文中方法的有效性．通过对比微电网运行在柴油机启动和柴油机停运两种模式下的随机潮流计算结果，发现储能设备的配置能减轻微电网电压的波动性，有利于微电网的安全稳定运行．

Random outputs of photovoltaic generators and wind power generators take a great proportion in islandedmicrogrids,and the loads are random.However,certain power flow only reflects the operation state at a certain mo-ment.In order to reflect the real power flow distribution in islanded microgrids more correctly,probability models ofphotovoltaic generators and wind power generators in microgrids are constructed,and the power flow of a real islan-ded microgrid system is analyzed by using a calculation method based on the semi- invariant and the Gram- Charlierseries expansion,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.From the results of stochastic power flowanalysis for the diesel generator on or off operation,it is found that the addition of storage devices helps reduce thevariation of voltage and guarantee the reliability of microgrids.