提出一个同时考虑风场运动延迟平滑效应和尾流效应的风功率预测模型．模型中通过模拟尾流效应对风速的影响，并计及风速传输的延迟性，获得处于不同空间位置风机的风速，通过功率的叠加，形成风电场功率输出曲线来表征功率输出的平滑效应．模拟及案例分析结果表明，所提出的模型有效性强、精度高，适合用来评估风电场注入功率对系统的冲击影响，更符合风电场的实际情况，有助于对电力系统机组的备用容量、爬坡率进行修正，并有利于合理评估风电场对电网运行安全的影响．

Proposed in this paper is a wind power prediction model considering both the smoothing effect and thewake effect,which helps to obtain the speed of wind turbines in different spatial positions by simulating the influ-ence of the wake effect on the wind speed and by considering the delay of wind transmission.The model also helpsto characterize the smoothing effect of power output by overlapping the power to shape power output curves.The re-sults of simulation and case study show that the proposed model is applicable for evaluating the impact of wind pow-er farms' input power on the system with high efficiency and precision,and that it accords well with practical windpower farms,so that it is useful for the correction of power units' reserved capacity and ramping rate as well as forthe appropriate assessment of power system reliability in the presence of wind power farms.